Why build an observatory on top of a volcano

Science Explorer. Multimedia Gallery. Park Passes. Technical Announcements. Employees in the News. Emergency Management. Survey Manual. Public domain. Jaggar began his efforts to establish a volcano observatory in Hawaii. Statistical and numerical models are important components of both long-term assessments and near-term forecasts at laboratory volcanoes. Moreover, the cost of installing and maintaining instruments and the time-span over which a variety of event observations can be expected to be captured varies greatly.

Volcanoes that become attractive global laboratories are those that have one or more of the following characteristics: i pose a significant risk that justifies the investments; ii are frequently active so as to begin to return results soon after the investment is made; and iii are easily accessible so as to minimize logistical costs.

High quality multi-parametric data from a number of intensely monitored, deeply investigated natural laboratory volcanoes Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Etna and Stromboli in Italy; Long Valley and Yellowstone calderas, and Mount St.

Such models have the potential to: i provide a robust framework for establishing relationships between surface observations and deep processes, thus leading to improved interpretation of monitoring data and guides for best development of monitoring networks at other volcanoes; ii provide conceptual models of volcanic processes from lithosphere into the atmosphere, thus leading to deeper understanding of volcano dynamics and of the controlling roles played by multiple variables e.

The examples of laboratory volcanoes cited here have contributed important insights into our understanding of eruptive processes. Additional laboratory volcanoes are needed to more fully explore the global range of activity and to enable more detailed comparisons.

Not only do laboratory volcanoes provide data on magma dynamics unmatched in breadth and frequency of recurrence by other sites, but they serve as natural gathering places for teams from different countries to collaborate. They provide an effective situation in which to compare and validate methods, explore concepts and ideas, deepen understanding, and define successful practices for advanced monitoring and near-term forecasting. While it is important that the experience gained at laboratory volcanoes be transported to other dangerous volcanoes, the specificity of each volcano may represent a substantial difficulty.

It can be complex to discern those characteristics that can be generalized to other volcanoes, even when of the same general type e. Differences in system conditions at different volcanoes e. A calibrated mix of observations, experience, theoretical and numerical studies is the key to useful understanding of unrest and forecasting of near-term hazards at a large number of volcanoes. This is especially true for neighboring universities, which by proximity will tend to have shared interests and more opportunities for interaction.

In some cases, universities may also host a broader range of relevant expertise than an observatory can support. The faculty workforce may be large and flexible, usually with an ability or requirement to start and stop new projects faster than observatory scientists. In turn, through collaboration with observatories, students can be motivated to become the geohazard scientists of tomorrow.

For students, the experience of working in, or in association with, an observatory gives them a sense of directly applying the science they are studying for the public good. For the observatory, students can provide refreshing new talent and a counterforce to the cloistering effect of observatory structure. Students from a local university can also provide an important link between the observatory and the community the observatory serves.

For some countries, the linkage between observatories and academia is natural because they are part of the same bureaucratic structure, even to the extent that the observatory is operated by a university or research institute as in Japan, where the volcano observatories are maintained by universities and their data are shared with the Japan Meteorological Agency, which has responsibility for emergency management.

In other cases, an observatory and its potential university partners are totally unrelated entities, so that institutional barriers must be overcome for close cooperation to occur. In the latter case, the observatory may have a strongly operational emphasis, and correspondingly fewer research and development components in its mission portfolio.

Even when an observatory is part of an academic system, there often remain clear distinctions between being a faculty member and an observatory scientist. Faculty with teaching and other responsibilities cannot be totally dedicated to observatory functions except over short periods of crisis. On the other hand, observatory scientists with operational responsibilities may not be able to achieve the scientific research and publication output expected of their regular academic colleagues.

Accommodations for these differences must be made in order to have an effective partnership. A more general issue for relations between observatories and universities is the collegial exchange of data and ideas. In the past, many observatories had a monopoly on data from the volcanoes they monitored.

Delivery of the same message from multiple observatory scientists and their civil protection partners is highly effective for consistent communication with the media and the public during a crisis. A common aim is to preserve the central mission behind the observatory concept — to maintain the voice of scientific authority upon which civil decision makers can base their actions, while also benefiting from all available science that is pertinent to understanding the causes and consequences of volcanism.

The broader academic community is asked to defer to observatories as the collective scientific public voice during a crisis and to provide proper attribution for data and interpretations. Thus, the continued success of an observatory in maintaining an authoritative voice ultimately relies on its own credibility and an effective public outreach policy, especially if monitoring data are openly available.

A reciprocal relationship between universities and observatories also exists. Consequently, it is important for academic researchers to share their data with observatories in a timely manner.

Published papers, academic theses or reports are useful over the long-term, but in addition, providing the observatory with near-real-time data and interpretations can be critical during crises. Such reciprocity encourages collaboration, which in turn benefits both institutions. Sharing of data with and by university partners can significantly enhance and even correct premature or misleading interpretations of data.

For example, although InSAR data are becoming easier to process, interpretation can be complex, with atmospheric and topographic effects that can be mistaken for signs of volcanic deformation. This can lead to potentially dangerous misinterpretation, both by members of the public who may access data via open-access portals and by non-specialist volcanologists. Similar statements are also true for many other types of monitoring data. Consequently, strong partnerships and open communication between partner universities and observatories are critical for effective research, practice, hazard understanding and hazard communication e.

Sigmundsson et al. The use of near-real-time multi-gas monitoring Aiuppa et al. Satellite remote sensing, especially using radar has greatly advanced our ability to detect and assess changes at volcanoes Pyle et al.

Thermal sensing has enabled eruption detection, estimation of eruption rates and helped delineate extent of eruption products e. In spite of these advances, remote sensing was not a major topic of discussion during the VOBP workshops to date.

At least minimal monitoring of all potentially hazardous volcanoes is needed to identify volcanic unrest, establish backgrounds and thresholds and enable useful forecasts of eruptions.

Prioritization of monitoring according to a ranking of threat or risk Ewert ; Ewert et al. Expanded and multi-parameter monitoring, is also recommended as it reduces uncertainties and improves forecasts.

For reference and comparison, definition of levels of monitoring as considered appropriate for the U. Most eruptions involve complex natural processes that are difficult to forecast with certainty. Consequently, it is recommended that observatories use probabilistic methods in their forecasts and communicate in appropriate ways their inherent uncertainties. Improved forecasts are achieved through sharing of data and experiences among observatories, and by comparative studies of volcanoes and eruption sequences.

It is recommended that databases of volcanic unrest adopt common standards and strive to be compatible with each other, so as to enable efficient searches and a consistent basis for comparison. It is further recommended that a priority of volcano observatories should be to make regular contributions to open-access databases. Roles and responsibilities of observatories for the use of forecasts in mitigating risk should be clearly defined and consistent with national policy. Clear roles and responsibilities of each partner of the decision-making chain are critical for effective risk mitigation.

Universities are natural partners for volcano observatories, and can potentially provide additional scientific expertise, personnel who can assist in a crisis, and neighboring universities provide an important avenue for regional educational benefit and community outreach. In order to facilitate partnerships, it is important for observatories and their university partners to recognize their distinct job responsibilities and to work out roles, responsibilities, and accommodations in advance of eruptions.

To avoid potentially dangerous mixed messages, the responsibility for communication of hazards to emergency managers and the public remains with the responsible observatory see VOBP2 section. During times of crisis, observatories can benefit from each of these recommendations, as illustrated in Fig. Flow chart illustrating a common progression of processes triggered by a volcanic crisis and leading to decisions that mitigate risk, and illustrating how VOBP1 recommendations on near-term forecasting contribute to these processes.

Alerts typically provide situational awareness to partners involved in civil protection and mitigation. Analysis of vulnerability and risk, along with the forecast determines public decisions to mitigate risk, such as evacuations. Eighty-three participants representing volcano observatories and partner organizations from 26 nations participated in VOBP2 in Erice, Italy Fig. A principal role and responsibility of volcano observatories is communication of hazard information on various time scales to decision-makers and, in many countries, to the media and public.

Effective communication depends on clear distinctions of roles and responsibilities of observatories in relation to civil authorities and the broader scientific community, and on the prior definition and practice of efficient procedures for communication and risk mitigation in times of crisis.

Effective communication of volcano hazards information is also key to establishing trust and credibility for the observatory in the eyes of civil authorities and the public. The issue of communication both during and between crises is growing in importance Fearnley et al. This reflects both an increase in risk as a consequence of greater societal exposure, and a growing demand for responsibility and cooperation in societies due to complex relationships among multiple actors with complementary roles.

Clear, prompt, and efficient communication between responsible parties is critical to increase the effectiveness of the societal response to a crisis. In addition, the quality of communication between scientists, decision makers and the public during a crisis is not independent from the specific cultural and societal setting, even within a single nation Andreastuti et al.

Consequently, there is not one unique or best communication strategy that holds in all countries, especially considering the wide variability of societal settings in countries with active volcanoes.

Nonetheless, many observatory scientists agree that there is a need for an authoritative international reference and recommendations, such as those presented here, to help identify critical issues and guide development of hazard communication methods, while also respecting the realities and constraints regarding volcano hazard communication in different countries.

The need for an international reference concerning these factors was recognized as an urgent priority for future work by participants at VOBP1 in , and consequently Communication of Volcanic Hazards became the focus of the second international Volcano Observatory Best Practices Workshop VOBP2. Most observatories exist to produce evidence-based, scientific information and forecasts with associated uncertainties in a comprehensible format, i.

Yet, in some cases the lines of responsibility become blurred. Civil or military authorities are expected to factor in broad logistical, economic, and sociological constraints in deciding on a major mitigation actions, weighing for example, the risks of evacuation against the risks of not evacuating. Alert or threat levels are widely regarded as an efficient means of communicating levels of unrest and in some cases desired civic responses, and consequently they are widely used by governments world-wide.

When linked to probabilistic and uncertainty analysis, alert levels have the advantage of a simplified message that is less subject to the moral and emotional dilemmas posed by requiring those at-risk to independently analyze the associated uncertainties Merlhiot et al. However, in crisis situations consensus must be achieved quickly. Rapid consensus is facilitated by preparation and practice of communication and collaboration procedures in advance of crises. For rapid and accurate information dissemination, observatories should convey hazard information in standardized formats and use direct modes of communication e.

Common formats used by many observatories include color-coded alert or status messages via web pages and in some cases by social media. Some observatories also issue public information bulletins to provide context or updates that do not require a change in alert level.

Increasingly, observatories are using automated messaging systems for distribution of hazard information to key stakeholders; such systems are important especially in times of crisis to rapidly and simultaneously alert the many different entities who are part of a crisis-response community.

In addition, many observatories engage in active hazard education and outreach programs, to help maintain awareness of hazards and where authorized, to engage with civil protection partners in socialization programs that prepare communities to respond appropriately to crises and thereby increase resilience.

There is increasing recognition that communication by volcano observatories needs to suit a wide audience including those overseas for transboundary hazards. For example, special reports issued jointly by the Icelandic Met Office and Civil Protection in Iceland before and during eruptions now include a series of scenarios to enable planning by a wide variety of users in Iceland and in Europe.

Because they are fundamentally a communication method, they are discussed here. VALs discretize the state of a volcano into a number of levels usually three to five, but they can be more , which are sometimes also used to define when and what actions aimed at public safety should be put in place Additional file 3.

While there is wide agreement as to the value of VALs as communication tools, there is debate within the observatory community regarding who should be responsible for issuing them. Papale argues that their issuance by observatories may: i imply predictive capabilities not supported by corresponding levels of confidence in the knowledge of the volcano, and ii impose on the volcano scientist responsibility for decisions that may exceed his or her expertise and societal mandate.

The first point is related to the degree of certainty that is implicit in some VAL language and to the discretization of what may be a continuous probability distribution. The second point relates to the discretized nature of VALs, implying, either implicitly or explicitly, an immediate link with actions aimed at mitigating risk. That link extends the role of volcano observatories beyond the typically limited range of expertise available to them i. The observatories represented at the VOBP workshops acknowledge these potential problems, and consequently, they work in close partnership with civil protection and political officials to develop site-specific protocols for VAL issuance and implementation.

Currently, the majority of observatories represented at the VOBP workshops are responsible for issuing VALs; in other cases, their civil protection partners issue the alerts based on a range of information, in addition to the scientific information from the observatory Additional file 3.

A special case of communication that is increasingly under discussion involves the release of real-time or near-real-time geophysical data. In the past, most observatories kept these data internal. This allowed time for the interpretation needed make the data meaningful to the public. Also, as the sole source of data, the observatory was able to speak from a position of authority about the volcano and prevent potential misinterpretation of the data by others.

However, new government policies and societal forces in some countries are now requiring open-access to monitoring data, and a number of meteorological and tectonic-seismological agencies have adopted open-data policies. While some national governments require open-access to data relevant to public health, safety, and prosperity, the range in data policies now in effect among observatories is from almost total openness to near-complete absence of real-time data-access.

This is an area of change, and many in the natural hazards community recommend accepting that open-access to data is inevitable and should be embraced.

Several observatories that are releasing real-time or near-real-time data report that the consequences of an informed public outweigh the risks, especially when open-access is coupled with a strong observatory-based public communication program e. In effect, open-access to data requires a strong program of public outreach and education by the observatory — a function that also enhances trust between at-risk communities and the observatory.

Regardless of official data policy, a monopoly on monitoring data is diminishing as observatories come to rely on data from outside sources, such as from satellites and from ground networks operated by others. Indeed, international organizations such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems GEOSS and regional funding agencies such as the European Commission are pushing for open-access to real-time monitoring data of all kinds.

As applied to volcanoes, an argument has been made that observatories cannot expect special access to radar satellite data, which is normally sold commercially, if they are unwilling to share data from their own ground-based systems. It is not so much that space agencies or space corporations are interested in the in situ data itself, although they may be for purposes of calibration and verification, but rather in the principle of open sharing of real-time observations of public interest, as is now done routinely in some nations for seismic data from tectonic networks.

The release of certain types of data, e. The challenge is that certain other types of data e. Consequently, open-access imposes a time-pressure on the observatory to interpret monitoring data in as rapid a manner as possible, while also maintaining quality of interpretation. Yet during crises, not all observatories have the capacity to maintain effective near-term forecasting, while also responding to the many public inquiries and to misinterpretations by external parties that sometimes result from open-access to real-time raw data.

Consequently, we recommend that observatories provide open-access to data that does not require extensive interpretations e. We note that an authoritative voice is achieved both because of governmental authority and because observatories that practice open-access generally also practice strong public outreach, education, and communication programs.

A revolution that has occurred over the last decade is the explosive growth of social media. In some recent natural disasters, government response agencies have found themselves very much behind the public in gathering and disseminating observations.

Some observatories have introduced use of Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and other social-media applications to keep the public informed. In turn, website interfaces can allow the citizenry to report observations, and social media can be mined for citizen reports.

Unfortunately, there is also the potential for false and even dangerous reports that can emerge on social media from non-observatory sources during volcanic crises, and as with open-access to data, observatories must be vigilant to detect and correct potentially dangerous misinformation that arises via social media.

The use of citizen scientists in observing and reporting data is most advanced for tectonic earthquakes. It can be further exploited by volcano observatories for reporting ashfalls, gas, incandescence, and other volcanic phenomena, and some observatories and volcano databases are already taking advantage of these opportunities e. And even without social media, local populations can serve both as citizen scientists and as effective local community leaders in risk mitigation.

They increase community awareness and preparedness and serve as an early-warning system for civil protection Stone et al. However, the communication of uncertainty can be challenging. The scientific concept of uncertainty may be different from the understanding of stakeholders. Use of scenarios and explaining probabilities and their associated uncertainties in relative terms can be useful.

In addition to the issue of understanding of the definition of uncertainty, too much emphasis on the uncertainty of forecasts can undermine credibility Merlhiot et al. Following established and well-documented communication procedures is simply good-practice, critical for observatories to maintain credibility, and can serve as a legal basis for demonstrating that the institution has operated within the scope of its authority.

Such procedures should be formulated with consideration of factors such as how the observatory will communicate uncertainty and reporting of low-probability but high-impact events. There is a clear consensus on the concept that communication and responsibility are closely related: with regard to societal risk, each involved group communicates what it is responsible for; or said the other way round, the content of the communications defines the responsibility of the communicating party.

As already noted, the responsibilities assigned to volcano observatories change from one country to another, according to local culture, societal constraints and regulations. As a consequence, the content of communications by volcano observatories varies.

In some countries the authority responsible for mitigation decisions that have a major impact on the society, is different from the volcano observatory. In such countries, communications by volcano observatories should not include statements on actions like access closure, interruption of social or commercial activities, etc.

These observatories, instead contribute to reaching those decisions with their forecasts representing their expert advice on the volcano state and its possible evolutions. This is not the case in other countries in which observatory VALs are issued that in addition to information on the state of the volcano, also include mitigation advice Additional file 3. In these countries there is a shared responsibility between the observatory and those responsible for decisions related to mitigation actions.

Observatories and emergency managers are partners in the mitigation of risk. Observatories work with emergency managers in advance of crises to develop response and contingency plans that stipulate roles, responsibilities and authorities of both parties, defining what is required of each party, according to their know-how and societal mandates and in order for the society to benefit from best practices and established protocols in reaching decisions.

The primary goal of a constant communication practice between volcano observatories and stakeholders is to ensure that the conveyed messages are correctly received, especially in times of crisis when delays or misunderstandings can have disastrous consequences. Equally relevant is for volcano observatories to understand what knowledge stakeholders need most, so to ensure that messages are tailored to the most relevant and most urgent needs.

Developing a common language and mutual understanding, e. Building up such relationships and mutual understanding requires time and effort, which is more than repaid by the positive effects on the interests of all parties.

There is also agreement that personal investment by local communities in response and mitigation planning is critical, both to ensure effective near-term crisis response and to reduce risk as a consequence of long-term hazard assessment. In spite of this agreement, there is frustration in many nations concerning a lack of commitment by communities and governments with respect to land-use and environmental planning; especially in regions of great population pressure and high risk tolerance.

However, there is agreement concerning the importance of perseverance and the resulting incremental gains that can be achieved. Although major volcanic eruptions can cause large-scale disasters, in any one locale they may be rare, spaced out over intervals of generations or even many lifetimes. In these situations, a continuous educational process for decision makers and the public is especially important so they are able to understand and respond to warnings.

Places on Earth that are now well-populated may not have had a local eruption during recent history and in such places it is likely that there has been no learning by experience, increasing the vulnerability of the population and the importance of learning through simulated events. For example, the need for continuous education on volcanic hazards is important in the Pacific Northwest of the U. Here, binational exchanges Mangan et al. Because observatories are the source of deep, long-term institutional knowledge of the volcanoes and volcanic hazards in their area of responsibility, this institutional knowledge should be used to promote awareness, preparation, and coordination in peacetime.

This can be accomplished through a range of education, outreach and practice of crisis management with partners, such as through table-top exercises involving the many stakeholders and partners involved in crisis management. The universal observatory role is to provide a single, clear voice of scientific authority based upon comprehensive analysis and objective consideration of all available data.

Two-way communication is important to ensure that information is understood and appropriate actions are taken at both ends. Repetition is important, not just because of the human tendency to forget but also because there is often high turnover of personnel in many non-scientific organizations, for example, in the military, local governments and embassies. Exercises also serve to foster communication from decision makers to observatories about critical infrastructure, which may require increased efforts to be included in forecasts as well as to jointly identify secondary impacts e.

In addition, such exercises benefit from consideration of cascading hazards and long-term effects of eruptions e. Such exercises are an effective means to facilitate the constant engagement between observatories and civil authorities that is considered essential for effective mitigation of risk during future volcanic crises.

It is widely recognized that Disaster Risk Reduction DRR can only be achieved if the population at risk is aware of the hazard and knows how to respond in a crisis.

This is best achieved if governments and communities work together to reduce vulnerability Paton et al. A wide range of actors play a role in DRR at the community level observatories, civil protection officials, community leaders, members of the media, non-governmental organizations, law enforcement officials, etc.

Virtually all observatories play a role in community education by providing information about the nature and extent of volcanic hazards; i. This is done both passively through publication and web-site-based content, and actively through in-person education programs and social media.

In addition, all observatories contribute hazard information to civil protection and public officials who are responsible for mitigation of risk. Where authorized to do so, observatories go farther, working closely with civil protection and local communities to design and implement volcanic-emergency response or contingency plans and to contribute to, or co-lead, emergency response exercises, Many lessons have been learned from volcanic crisis simulation exercises, e.

The growing impacts of volcanic activity on aviation increase the importance of rapid notification of volcanic ash-producing eruptions by observatories and volcano observatories now play a more active role in aviation safety at local to international levels. For example, the international civil aviation community has requested rapid warnings of ash plumes as a new goal for Volcano Observatory Notice to Aviation VONA alerts.

In addition to reporting on ash-producing eruptions, observatories and their partners now also use satellite data to detect explosive eruptions, track ash-clouds and forecast ashfall Prata ; Pyle et al.

Responding to incidents in the s and s when several passenger jet aircraft lost all power during encounters with ash clouds, volcano observatories, meteorological agencies and aviation sector partners evaluated the causes of these near-disasters and proposed mitigation strategies Casadevall One of the results was the creation of a network of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers VAACs in the s specifically to monitor volcanic ash clouds and provide warnings to pilots and airlines.

This network, now consisting of 9 VAACs and not directly tied to volcano observatories, was established under the authority of the International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO , an agency of the United Nations that develops policy and protocols for international aviation through participation of aviation agencies of member states.

Each VAAC is operated as an office of the weather agency for the country in which it resides. VAACs conduct satellite surveillance of volcanoes and acquire eruption and ash cloud reports from pilots and volcano observatories. Based upon this information, which ideally includes information about eruption characteristics and parameters from the relevant volcano observatories, VAACs issue forecasts for ash-cloud distribution in space and time.

Aviation agencies and airlines then use this information for flight planning, which may include diverting or cancelling flights in the case of significant ash eruptions. Through these notifications, volcano observatories are empowered to issue color-coded alert notifications for volcanic activity, along with any available information on ash-plume heights.

In addition to the VONAs, some volcano observatories also conduct ash-cloud dispersion and deposition models and they conduct field and laboratory studies to evaluate the hazards of ashfall, and to validate models. Along with other stakeholders, they provide forecasts and related information to the VAACs.

Strong relationships between observatories, regional VAACs and national meteorological agencies are mutually beneficial, as reports from the meteorological agency to the observatory can help with volcanic hazard analysis. The eruption was only moderately explosive, but it was long-lived and at a time when the ash was carried towards Europe by a stable weather pattern.

The protocol for jet aviation at the time was to avoid operations in ash-contaminated airspace, and most flights in European air space were canceled for several days. This event emphasized that volcanic-ash eruptions are an international problem, and present a threat not only to individual aircraft and their passengers, but also to the aviation industry and national economies.

It is important therefore, that volcano observatories understand their responsibilities in regards to aviation safety in order to properly engage the domestic and international aviation community.

Any major ash eruption can be expected to have multi-national impacts to aviation. A critical role for observatories is to rapidly communicate eruption information to the aviation community through the use of VONAs. As noted in the introduction to this paper, the synergy that results from sharing of data and expertise between observatories and between universities and observatories is of great value. Because the frequency, magnitude, and style of eruptions and their impacts varies widely from place to place, the experience and expertise of observatory staff also varies widely.

In addition to sharing of data and experience through international science meetings, VOBP workshops and regional or international workshops and training programs provide a means for more in-depth sharing of applied aspects of observatory operations and crisis management. Exchanges of staff between observatories and between observatories and university partners can also aid in the exchange of knowledge and technology, as has been demonstrated widely, examples include regional cooperation in crisis response and monitoring infrastructure development projects between observatories in Latin America and improved lava flow modeling techniques acquired through exchange visits of Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists and lava-flow modeling experts at INGV facilities in Rome, Pisa, and Catania.

VOBP2 participants agreed to best practice recommendations that: i emphasize the central role of observatories in the management of the scientific aspects of volcanic crises while seeking consensus among different experts, ii stress the role of uncertainties and the use of probabilities in hazard forecasts and associated communications, iii emphasize the need for long-standing relationships with civil authorities in order to build reciprocal understanding, trust, and credibility, and iv clearly define roles and responsibilities and to continuously improve the effectiveness of communication.

The following specific recommendations were made:. In crisis situations consensus must be achieved quickly. Rapid consensus is facilitated by preparation and practice of procedures in advance of crises.

International formats have been adopted for Volcano Observatory Notifications to Aviation VONAs and provide a good example of the value of standardization, especially for ash hazards, which cross international borders. To maximize the use of hazard forecasts from volcano observatories for risk mitigation purposes e. Further, observatories should continue to communicate with communities to reduce vulnerability to volcanic disaster.

To build up a common language and understanding and to establish trust and credibility, observatories engage with stakeholders from civil authorities to the general public at all phases of the emergency cycle; ensure constant flow of information; continuously evaluate and improve effectiveness of communication strategies; and communicate messages tailored to the specific stakeholders, keeping such messages meaningful.

A number of sources for improving public communication of technical information are available in the social science literature, as well as from scientific organizations e. Sharing of data and expertise, and participation in regional and international workshops and training programs is recommended, as it enhances observatory capabilities.

For communities that have not experienced an eruption, but that are exposed to a significant threat from a long-dormant volcano, observatories would be well served to conduct periodic hazard-awareness and crisis response education programs with their civil protection partners, to increase community resilience. Given limited resources, it is important to prioritize such preparedness work according to level of threat. Finally, there is a need to clearly identify the roles and responsibilities of observatory scientists and civil protection decision-makers with respect to mitigation actions.

In some nations, the former are restricted to expressing their understanding of the uncertainties involved in hazard forecasts and possible scenarios, and the latter make decisions taking into account the inherent uncertainty involved in forecasting eruptive behavior, as well as other practical, social and political factors.

In other nations, observatory scientists play a more direct role in assisting civil protection authorities with risk mitigation decisions. Because of the close relationship between communication and responsibility, the observatory should carefully construct its communications to be consistent with its responsibilities.

A flow chart illustrates how these recommendations come into play during communication of hazard alerts and forecasts Fig. Flow chart illustrating how best practices recommendations of VOBP3 contribute to effective hazard communication.

The starting point a requirement for hazard alerts, warnings, forecasts assumes that protocols are pre-established for the roles of the observatory and other entities involved in civil protection.

Flow chart symbols as in Fig. There is a long list of emerging issues and topics that are appropriate for future VOBP workshops. Here we list a few example s. The subject of VOBP3 was long-term hazard assessment, not specifically vulnerability and risk assessment , although these subjects are intimately related.

In terms of the limited history of volcano observatory engagement in risk mapping, the first use of conditional probabilities in the construction of volcanic risk zones we know of was the work by Chris Newhall at Mount St. Helens shortly after the eruption Newhall However, at Mount St. Helens in , a risk ladder, which compared volcanic risks to those of more common activities, proved to be an effective way to communicate such low probabilities and resulted in a decision to harvest downed-trees in part of the blast zone Newhall and Pallister It is also the case that certain emergency management and political officials are familiar with probabilistic risk assessment and they need quantitative probabilistic analysis of risk.

There are wide differences in responsibility and mandate regarding work by observatories on the evaluation of vulnerability and risk, yet, there is wide agreement with respect to the value and need for such evaluations, especially with respect to affecting changes in human behavior and in motivating political action, whether related to decisions to evacuate, land-use restrictions, or return to areas previously devastated. Consequently, observatory scientists need to take into account the social and cultural context of hazard assessments and work with communities and other partners to understand how the volcano hazard fits into their risk tolerance Cronin et al.

The degree to which observatories currently contribute directly to assessing vulnerability and risk assessment varies considerably depending on mandate. For example, in some nations e. These products are prepared by or in partnership with emergency managers and communities. However, in other nations, such as Italy, responsibility for risk analysis lies outside of the volcano observatory institution Papale In addition to risk to human life and state of health, there is also the subject of risk to infrastructure and the economy.

The potential future role of observatories in vulnerability and risk assessment , either directly, or indirectly through partnerships, is a potential topic for a future VOBP meeting. Although VOBP2 was on communication of hazards, much of the discussion and recommendations focused on the roles and responsibilities of observatories with respect to hazard alerts and warnings, with relatively little attention devoted to communication with the media.

Yet collectively, observatories have amassed extensive experience over the past decades in public communication and use of social media. Examples include: strategies used by the USGS in dealing with extensive media coverage of the eruption of Mount St. Many observatories now have Facebook and Twitter pages and are increasingly using public reporting and direct communication for both real-time monitoring and real-time communication of hazards.

The topic of volcano observatories and the media is ripe for a discussion at a future VOBP meeting. In addition, some observatories have frequent eruptions and crisis experience, whereas, others may only have to deal with a dangerous eruption once a decade. A number of technological developments have emerged over the past few decades that offer great promise to improve volcano monitoring and forecasting.

These include major new developments in remote sensing, ranging from the application of InSAR and GPS networks to monitor and interpret volcanic deformation Hooper et al. New developments in numerical and probabilistic modeling are also leading to improved forecasting, examples include new models of lava flow advance and machine-learning algorithms that automatically process monitoring data to forecast lava fountains, and improved ash dispersion and accumulation models that utilize real-time weather forecasts, etc.

Some of these technologies have direct application in volcano observatories; others will advance understanding of volcanic systems and thereby contribute to the conceptual and numerical models used in assessment of hazards and in forecasting. We suggest that a future VOBP workshop on new technologies and their potential applications by volcano observatories is timely and would be useful in the evaluation and sharing of these new technologies and methods.

The three VOBP workshops to date on long-term hazard assessment, near-term forecasting, and hazard communications have strengthened international relationships between volcano observatory scientists and improved understanding of the variety of the operational contexts scientific, political and social under which observatories operate.

Prioritization of investments in monitoring infrastructure based on levels of threat, and enhanced multi-parameter monitoring to reduce uncertainty in forecasting, iv. Future VOBP meetings will address additional critical topics selected by the assembled observatories, and will result in additional best-practice recommendations.

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J Volcanol Geotherm Res. The importance of communication in hazard zone areas: case study during and after Merapi eruption, Indonesia. Global volcanic hazards and risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; LA PALMA, Spain, Nov 1 Reuters - Viewed from La Palma's highest point where enormous telescopes dot the rocky landscape, the Cumbre Vieja volcano looks like a distant puff of smoke breaking through a blanket of white cloud to create a sense of serene isolation.

But dust from the eruption, which has been wreaking havoc on the Spanish Canary island for more than 40 days, can clog up machinery, scratch lenses and cause electrical interference at the state-of-the-art observatory, hampering scientific work. Most of the instruments are encased within huge domes that shut when there is risk of ashfall, but two so-called MAGIC telescopes, designed to detect gamma-ray bursts in distant galaxies via glittering mirror panels, have no such protection.

Minimal light pollution around La Palma, the westernmost of the Canaries and among the least populated, makes it an ideal site for astronomical observation. Victor Acciari technical coordinator of the Magic telescopes performs maintenance work on the Magic I.